The warnings exist. The models exist. They just are not fast enough, specific enough, or built from Caribbean Sea data. Every operational hurricane forecast model in use today was trained primarily on Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico conditions. The Caribbean Sea has specific thermal dynamics, shallow bathymetry, and orographic interactions with the island chain that behave differently from the open Atlantic. Existing models treat these as secondary inputs. OYA AI treats them as the primary signal.
The result: 6 to 8 hours of actionable warning today. 72 hours is the target. That difference is not incremental. It is categorical. 6 hours means shelter in place. 72 hours means structured evacuation, supply pre-positioning, infrastructure protection, and economic activity planning. The difference in casualties and economic damage between those two scenarios is the entire case for OYA AI.
Named for Oya
OYA AI is named for the Yoruba goddess of storms, transformation, and change. She stands at the crossroads between life and death, whose domain is precisely the kind of sudden, devastating, clarifying force that a Caribbean hurricane represents. The name is intentional. The relationship between the storm prediction system and the communities it serves is not neutral or purely commercial. It is consequential in a way that the name acknowledges.
How It Works
OYA AI is a physics-informed AI system. The model encodes actual atmospheric and oceanic dynamics rather than fitting statistical patterns to historical storm tracks. That distinction matters for a specific reason: pure pattern-matching models fail when the distribution shifts. As Caribbean sea surface temperatures change decade by decade, a statistical model calibrated on historical storm behaviour drifts from reality. A physics-informed model remains accurate because the underlying physical relationships do not change when the inputs do.
The system runs on continuous data ingestion: Caribbean Sea surface temperature at sub-kilometre resolution, atmospheric pressure gradients, wind shear measurements, ocean heat content, and satellite imagery updated on six-hour cycles. The nowcast output updates every cycle and is available to API subscribers in real time.
"The social mission and the commercial case are the same product. The data that saves lives is the same data that reinsurers will pay to price Caribbean risk accurately. That is not a coincidence."
Three Buyer Markets
Reinsurers lose $90 to 130 billion annually from Caribbean and Latin American climate risk they cannot accurately price. That is not climate loss from storms. That is pricing error from insufficient data. OYA AI's climate data platform provides the actuarial input that makes accurate pricing possible. A single large reinsurance client reducing its Caribbean loss ratio by 5% through better pricing data represents $225 million in annual value.
Governments in the Caribbean and LATAM spend approximately $2.4 billion annually on disaster preparedness and emergency management. A 12x improvement in warning lead time has a direct, measurable return on investment through reduced emergency response costs, reduced structural damage to public infrastructure, and fewer casualties per storm event.
Development banks including the Inter-American Development Bank, Caribbean Development Bank, and World Bank allocate $8 to 12 billion annually to climate resilience investments in the Caribbean and LATAM region. Accurate climate intelligence is a prerequisite for effective investment allocation. OYA AI provides that signal where it does not currently exist.
Addressable Market
The global catastrophe risk data and analytics market is $12.7 billion, projected to reach $22.1 billion by 2030. Caribbean and LATAM coverage is currently the largest single data gap in that market. OYA AI occupies that gap directly.
Government emergency management technology spending in the Caribbean exceeds $400 million annually. LATAM adds $1.8 billion. The reinsurance premium market for Caribbean risk exceeds $4.5 billion annually. Each of these is a distinct revenue channel that the same underlying product addresses.
Revenue Model
OYA AI generates revenue through government API contracts, reinsurance data licensing, development bank data partnerships, and emergency management technology contracts. The data licensing model scales with the number of jurisdictions covered and the frequency of data delivery. Government contracts provide baseline recurring revenue. Reinsurance partnerships generate premium-linked fees that scale with portfolio size.